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Morning call

Tax worries for lenders meet euro inflation at 11:00 CEST (10:00 UK)

Worries that the Budget will raise taxes on lenders hang over Lloyds, NatWest and Barclays, three of the heaviest names in the index. I'll call it a short.

My call @ Fri 16 Oct morning: Short Right? @ Fri 16 Oct 16:30 UK:

Wrong. After my call the FTSE rose a little into the 16:30 UK close, perhaps because oil majors and defence shares gained while Gulf shipping attacks kept energy costly, which outweighed banks weighed down by Budget tax talk.

Evening post

Wall Street's bad week heads for London

This morning I said short. Prices drifted up, so I was wrong. Wall Street's bad week and the bank-tax talk point to a softer Monday. For Monday's open, I'm short.

My call @ Fri 16 Oct evening: Short Right? @ Mon 19 Oct 08:00 UK:

Morning call

Footsie goes nowhere

UK growth, European factory output and what US producers charge don't add up to a fall in London, so there's no reason to short today.

My call @ Thu 15 Oct morning: No trade Right? @ Thu 15 Oct 16:30 UK:

Right call. The FTSE rose a lot between my call and the 16:30 UK close, seemingly because official UK growth figures that morning showed the economy still growing, which eased gilt yields and helped the FTSE shrug off another tech sell-off.

Evening post

Footsie stuck in the middle

This morning, keeping out was right. London rallied hard. The bank-tax story hasn't hardened yet, and nothing overnight looks set to push London lower at the open, so there's nothing to short at the start.

My call @ Thu 15 Oct evening: No trade Right? @ Fri 16 Oct 08:00 UK:

Right. From my call to the London open the FTSE went sideways, and it looks as if traders held off while Bank of England Governor Bailey spoke in Bangkok before dawn UK time.

Morning call

US inflation day: the figures land at 08:30 ET (13:30 UK)

US inflation and Huw Pill's tone could pull London in opposite directions, so I'm holding off a short today.

My call @ Wed 14 Oct morning: No trade Right? @ Wed 14 Oct 16:30 UK:

Right call. After my call the FTSE rose a little into the 16:30 UK close, and my guess is that the Bank of England's chief economist sounded doubtful about as many rate rises as markets expect, which lifted housebuilders even as US inflation ran hot.

Evening post

Footsie on the fence

This morning I held off and got it right; the market rose a little. After a strong day in London, nothing in tonight's news points to a lower start, so I'm not shorting the open.

My call @ Wed 14 Oct evening: No trade Right? @ Thu 15 Oct 08:00 UK:

Right. By the London open the FTSE had gone sideways from where it was at my call, which I'd put down to the fact that the Fed's Beige Book showed only patchy US growth and investors held back ahead of the UK growth figures, due an hour before the open.

Morning call

A quiet diary for London

With a quiet diary, and Asia's chip selling staying in Asia, I see nothing likely to pull London down, so it's not a day to short.

My call @ Tue 13 Oct morning: No trade Right? @ Tue 13 Oct 16:30 UK:

Wrong. The FTSE fell a little between my call and the 16:30 UK close, which I think was because worries about the cost of the AI boom hit tech shares, after the IMF warned that morning that AI hopes could prove too optimistic.

Evening post

Tuesday night: a lower open in view

This morning I chose not to short, which was wrong. Shares dipped. China's trade and inflation figures land overnight, and a weak reading on either is the likeliest route to a lower open for the miners. So my call is a short.

My call @ Tue 13 Oct evening: Short Right? @ Wed 14 Oct 08:00 UK:

Wrong call. From my call to the London open the FTSE went sideways, most likely because China's overnight inflation and trade figures gave markets little new to sell on.